Dear Editor,
Two months ago columnist and author GHK Lall predicted Obama would be a one-term president. Tomorrow this great nation goes to the polls. And, given the advantage of all the recent data and analyses, I still cannot predict the outcome of this election.
Annan Boodram, also a columnist wagered a return ticket to Guyana to anyone who beats him in his bet that Obama will win. Both GHK and Annan bring to this test their own unique analytic and reasoning skills. In a few days, we’d like them to explain the basis of their predictions. They will surely add to our stock of knowledge on voter psychology and the nature of presidential campaigns.
I can only say that I am an Obama supporter. I dutifully went online and sent my contribution of a US$100 so that his campaign would have enough funds to get his message out, as well as to counter the propaganda from his opponent. I can only hope and pray that he wins. You see, I deeply believe that America will not be able to survive another hit like the one inflicted by a recent Republican president – who started two wars (Iraq and Afghanistan), and not only did not pay for the wars, but gave a tax cut – and still maintain its pre-eminent status in the world.
The Neocons will push Romney to start a war with Iran and give more tax cuts that can only drain the coffers further and will certainly place America on a path of decline. For this reason – to avoid another Republican hit I pray and hope sound reasoning prevails among the citizens and they vote to re-elect President Obama.
America is probably one of the greatest democracies, if not the greatest, in the history of the world. Why do I say this? No one will die in clashes between competing party supporters and the transference of power will be smooth and painless as clockwork. Also, despite the two-term limit of a president, the electorate itself rarely votes in the same party for more than three terms. (Compare this with Guyana’s democracy – the same party has been in power for the last four terms.) When the baton of power passes from one party to another every two or three election cycles, there will be no need for political or election violence.
Still there is no such thing as a perfect democracy. The party that raises more funds (including funds by supposedly independent support groups) will have an advantage and usually sway election outcomes in its favour.
I have always been fascinated and perplexed by the various reasons people give to explain their vote. Consider these:
(1) Rudy, a Guyanese sold his apartment building for a US$500,000 capital gain in 1990. He began voting Republican. Why? He benefited from the lower capital gains tax passed by a Republican president – from 35% to 25% – and saved thousands of dollars. Then he had a heart attack. He had no health insurance. The bill totalled US$315,000. The hospital threatened to sue and would have gotten judgment on his property. Rudy cut a deal – he began paying a few thousand dollars each year. He died two years later. The hospital is after his property again for full payment.
(2) Sam, another Guyanese owns a store (on Liberty Avenue) and some real estate. He is voting Republican. Why? He will pay income tax at a lower rate, he says, and doesn’t have to provide mandatory health coverage for his employees. Meanwhile, Sam doesn’t have health insurance for himself. God forbid he has a serious illness like Rudy’s
(3) Tens of thousands of voters are known not to consider life-saving issues, but are values voters. They will make their decisions based on which candidate is against same-sex marriage, for prayer in schools etc.
(4) Many Guyanese were at some time or another illegal in America until they acquired their green cards. Yet some of these individuals would justify voting for Romney who supports tough immigration laws leading to self-deportation.
For many people, party loyalty is like religion; the same way I am a Hindu, I was born into it. Several generations of the family have always voted for the same party. I would say approximately 75 per cent of the electorate vote party loyalty. Issues and platforms and candidates‘ positions will not matter. It is the remaining 25 per cent who are issues voters who will swing election outcomes one way or another. In the current election, pundits say the band of swing voters is very small, much less than the traditional 25 per cent. It is this band of swing voters who make this thing called democracy work. Absent this band of voters, and democracy will be a hopeless failure.
Perfect knowledge and perfect reasoning on the issues do not exist. And millions of voters are susceptible to false propaganda, distortions and outright lies. Obama cannot work with the Congress, says Romney; another four years of “partisan gridlock” if you vote Obama. This simple argument has the potential to sway a few million votes to Romney’s column. But this is precisely what Nobel Laureate NY Times columnist Paul Krugman calls blackmail. To so argue, says Krugman, “that Romney could get things done veers dangerously close to accepting protection-racket politics which have no place in American life.“
In conclusion, you have to say there is no such thing as a perfect democracy (all voters being issues voters; level playing field, same level of funding, etc), still somehow, American democracy is the envy of the world. And, notwithstanding all its imperfections, it works remarkably well.
GHK Lall is basing his prediction strictly on the high unemployment rate, and he is on solid ground. He should know, however, a trend only lasts for so long until it is broken. Annan Boodram is certainly not basing his prediction on polls (too close to call), but on intuition or magic.
Yours faithfully,
Mike Persaud
